ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI DAN KURS TERHADAP EKSPOR DI NEGARA ASEAN 5 PERIODE TAHUN 2012-2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jia.v1i2.130Keywords:
Perekonomian terbuka, ekspor, kurs, inflasi, Ordinary Least Square.Abstract
Every open market system based country is doing international trade activity everyday like export-import. Many research found that export is effected by foreign exchange and inflation rate. But from the latest data, in UK, the weakening of poundterling has failed to increase their export value. This research try to find an evidence  if there is relation between foreign exchange and inflation rate on export in ASEAN-5 countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. And how these variables affecting the export. Using 5 years observation data from 2012 to 2016 and ordinary least square method we conclude that simultaneously foreign exchange and inflation rate has significant effect on export. Partially, exchange rate depreciation has negative significant effect on Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore Export. Also has positive significant effect on Philippines export. While, inflation rate only has positive significant effect on Philippines export.
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Setiap negara yang menganut sistem perekonomian terbuka tidak akan lepas dari aktifitas perdagangan internasional seperti ekspor-impor. beberapa penelitian menyebutkan bahwa aktifitas ekspor seringkali dipengaruhi oleh nilai tukar dan tingkat inflasi suatu negara. Namun berdasarkan data terbaru diketahui bahwa di Inggris melemahnya nilai tukar poundsterling tidak mampu meningkatkan ekspor negaranya. Penelitian ini berusaha untuk membuktikan apakah terdapat pengaruh antara nilai tukar dan inflasi terhadap ekspor di negara ASEAN-5 seperti Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, dan Thailand serta bagaimana variabel-variabel tersebut mempengaruhi ekspor apakah secara positif atau negatif. Dengan mengunakan periode pengamatan di tahun 2012 – 2016 dan metode analisis ordinary least square  diketahui bahwa secara simultan inflasi dan kurs berpengaruhi terhadap nilai ekspor di negara ASEAN-5. Secara parsial, depresiasi kurs berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap ekspor negara Indonesia, Malaysia, dan Singapura serta berpengaruh positif signifikan di Filipina. Sedangkan Inflasi hanya berpengaruh secara positif signifikan di Filipina.References
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