DAMPAK SUBSITUSI IMPORT TERHADAP DEFISIT NERACA PERDAGANGAN: STUDI KASUS IMPOR KULIT INDONESIA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jpbc.v4i2.765Abstract
An alternative strategy to reduce the trade balance deficit simultaneously to increase the net foreign exchange is the import-substitution for raw materials used to produce an export goods. This paper proposes an import substitution study on footwear products that have a dependency on imported raw materials by 70 percent, with the largest composition being leather raw materials by 67 percent. This paper analyzes the relationship between subsidies on the leather industry to leather import-substitution, multiplier effect to footwear sector, and Indonesia trade balance. Author make use of simulation the on Input-Output 2010 table and Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model. The simulation shows 100 billion subsidies on the leather sector, lead for the substitution-import of leather by 7,94 million rupiah, increase the net export foreign exchange by 1.1 billion rupiah of the footwear sector, and for overall, increase Indonesia trade balance deficit by 68 billion rupiah.
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Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, footwear, leather, net foreign exchange, subsidy.
ABSTRAK:
Salah satu terobosan untuk mengurangi defisit neraca perdagangan dan meningkatkan nilai neto devisa ekspor adalah dengan substitusi impor bahan baku yang digunakan untuk memproduksi barang ekspor. Paper ini mengusulkan kajian substitusi impor pada produk alas kaki yang mempunyai ketergantungan bahan baku impornya sebesar 70 persen, dengan komposisi terbesar adalah bahan baku kulit sebesar 67 persen. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui dampak stimulus subsidi pada industri kulit terhadap subtitusi impor kulit, dukungan multiplier sektor kulit terhadap sektor alas kaki, serta terhadap devisa ekspor Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan simulasi model Computable General Equilibrium (CGE). Hasil simulasi menunjukkan stimulus subsidi sebesar 100 milyar rupiah pada sektor kulit memberikan substitusi bahan baku kulit sebesar 7,94 juta rupiah, menaikkan devisa ekspor sektor alas kaki sebesar 1.1 miliar rupiah, serta secara keseluruhan menambah defisit neraca berjalan Indonesia sebesar 68 miliar rupiah.
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Kata kunci: alas kaki, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), devisa ekspor, kulit, subsidi.
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