DAMPAK PERUBAHAN HARGA CRUDE PALM OIL (CPO) DUNIA TERHADAP VALUE EKSPOR KOMODITAS KELAPA SAWIT DAN PEREKONOM1AN INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jia.v2i1.113Keywords:
CPO, VAR, PDB, ekspor, inflasiAbstract
This study aims to determine the impact of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) price shocks in the world market on the export value of CPO and economic growth, inflation rate, exchange rate, and money supply as proxy of economy of Indonesia during 2001-2013. Based on quarterly time series data and using Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with Impulse Response Function(IRF) dan Variance Decomposition (VD), the studytries to analyzethe effects of CPO priceshocks to export value ofCPO commodity andeconomy ofIndonesia.The results show several conclusions: (i) the CPO price shocks in the world market have a positive impact on export value of CPO for 15 months; (ii) it also have a positive impact on economic growth for 15 months; (iii) it pushes up the domestic inflation rate for a year; (iv) it increases the domestic money supply which lasts for 6 months; (iv) it negatively affects the real exchange rate of Rupiah for 10 months.Therefore, government and all stakeholders should make a great collaboration to eliminate the negative effect of CPO price shocks. In addition, government expected to continue to realize the optimal infrastructure for palm oil industry. Because of inadequate of infrastructure can causerisingoftransportation costs andlackingofcompetitiveness ofCPOof Indonesia.
References
Agustian, A dan P. U. Hadi. 2002. Analisis Dinamika Ekspor dan Keunggulan Komparatif Minyak Kelapa Sawit (CPO) di Indonesia. Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian.Bogor
Aprina, Hilda. 2013. Analisis Pengaruh Harga Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Dunia Terhadap Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, Volume 16, Nomor4,April 2014
Asteriou, D and S.G. Hall. 2007. Applied Econometrics : A Modem Approach. Revised Edition. New York : Palgrave Macmillan.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). 2012. Data Produk Domestik Bruto, Inflasi dan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) periode 2000-2011.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Statistik Indonesia. Berbagai Edisi.
Boediono. 1993. Ekonomi Makro.Edisi ke-4. Yogyakarta: BPFE UGM.
BPS. 2008. Kajian Komoditas Unggulan. Jakarta:BPS
Brown, S.P.A. and M.K. Yiicel. 2002. Energy Prices and Aggregate Economic Activity: An Interpretative Survey. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (42), pp. 193-208.
Chen, Yu-chin and Kenneth Rogoff. 2003.Commodity Currencies. Journal of International Economics,Elsevier, 60(1).
Damodar, N. Gujarati and Dawn C Porter (2009). Basic Econometrics, Fifth Edition. New York:McGraw-Hill Irwin.
Direktorat Jenderal Perkebunan. 2014. Luas Areal, Produksi dan Produktivitas Perkebunan di Indonesia
Dombush, Fischer & Startz, Richard. 2001. Makroekonomi.8th Edition. Jakarta : PT. Media Global Edukasi.
Edward, Sebastian. 1987. Commodity Export Price and the Real Exchange Rate in Development Country : Coffee in Columbia. Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries. 12 Februari 2013. http://www.nber.org/books/edwa86-1.
Enders, Walter, 2004, Applied Econometric Time Series.2nd Edition, New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc
Henriques, I. and P. Sadorsky. (2011). The Effect of Oil Price Volatility on Strategic Investment. Energy Economics (33), pp. 79-87.
Kesicki, F. 2010. The Third Oil Price Surge-What's Different This Time?. Energy Policy (38), pp. 1596 - 1606. Kilian, L. (2008). Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 46, No. 4 (December), pp. 871-909.
Kilian, L. 2009. Oil Price Volatility : Origins and Effects, Background Paper for WTO's World Trade Report 2010, Geneva : World Trade Organization.
Lardic, S and V. Mignon. 2008. Oil Prices and Economic Activity: An Asymmetric Cointegration Approach. Energy Economics (30),pp.847-855.
Lardic, S., V. Mignon. 2006. The Impact of Oil Prices on GDP in European Countries :An Empirical Investigation Based on Asymmetric Cointegration. Energy Policy 34(18),pp.3910-3915.
Lipsey, R. G., et al. (1995). Pengantar Makroekonomi. Edisi ke-lO.Jilid 1. Wasana, Kirbrandoko, dan Budijanto [editor].Jakarta:Bina RupaAksara.
Mariati, R. 2009. Pengaruh Produksi Nasional, Konsumsi Dunia dan Harga Dunia Terhadap Ekspor Crude Palm Oil (CPO) di Indonesia. Jumal Ekonomi Pertanian dan Perdagangan6(l)
Nachrowi, DjalalNachrowi.dan Hardius Usman. 2006. Pendekatan Populer dan Praktis Ekonometrika untuk Analisis Ekonomi dan Keuangan. Jakarta : Lembaga Penerbit FakultasEkonomi
Nizar, M.A. 2002. Kenaikan Harga Minyak Dunia dan Implikasinya bagi Indonesia. Jakarta : Business News, Nomor 6779, (24 Juni), Jakarta:Business News.
Nizar, M.A. 2012. Dampak Fluktuasi Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Perekonomian. Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, Vol.6 No.2, Desember 2012
Prajitno, B dan N. D. Saputra. 2012. Analisis Mengenai Ekspor Kelapa Sawit Atas Perubahan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Amerika Serikat di IndonesiaTahun 2006-2010.Jumal Perekonomian Indonesia.
Prayitno, Lily et al. (Maret 2002). Fakto-Faktor Yang Berpengaruh Terhadap Jumlah Uang Beredar di Indonesia Sebelum dan Sesudah Krisis: Sebuah Analisis Ekonometrika. Jumal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan,
Qianqian, Z. 2011. The Impact of International Oil Price fluctuation on China's Economy. Energy Procedia (5),pp.1360-1364.
Sadorsky,P.1999.Oil PriceShocksand Stock Market Activity. Energy Economics (21), pp.449-469.
Samuelson, Paul.A.dan Nordhaus,WilliamD. 2004. Makroekonomi Edisi ke 17. Jakarta: Erlangga
Tjahjaprijadi, Cornelius. 2013. Dampak Kenaikan Harga Minyak Sawit Internasional Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia (Suatu Model Computable General Equilibrium). Badan Kebijakan Fiskal Kementerian Keuangan RI
UNCTAD. 2013. Free Market Commodity Price, Annual.http://unctadstat.unctad.org/ReportFolders/reportFolders.aspx.
Wardani, W. K. 2008. Dampak Kebijakan Perdagangan di Sektor Industri CPO terhadap Keseimbangan Pasar Minyak Goreng Sawit Dalam Negeri. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Bogor.
Yanti, Novi. 2012. Analisis Determinan Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit (CPO) Indonesia. Skripsi : Program Studi Ilmu Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Andalas, Padang
Zuhroh, Idah dan Kaluge, David. 2007. Dampak Pertumbuhan nilai Tukar Riil terhadap Pertumbuhan Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia. Jumal of Applied Indonesia Aconomic, 191
Downloads
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a CC BY-SA Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
