ANALISIS UNDERGROUND ECONOMY INDONESIA DAN POTENSI PENERIMAAN PAJAK DI ERA TAX AMNESTY
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jia.v1i1.18Keywords:
underground economy, PDB, tax amnestyAbstract
The growth of underground economy activity believed has potential tax loss. This study aims to estimate the size of underground economy activities in Indonesia. Based on the results of these estimates, further calculated the potential tax loss due to the existence of underground economy activities. This study was conducted using quantitative approaches, namely currency demand model by Vito Tanzi (1980) and Faal (2003) which is estimated by ordinary least square (OLS) method. By using time series (quarterly) data period 2011-2015 this study found that the size o f underground economy is about Rp 536 trillion per year on average, equivalent to 22,1% of GDP. Meanwhile, the potential tax loss due to the activity estimated at Rp 487,12 trillion on average per year, or approximately 1,9% of GDP.
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Berkembangnya kegiatan underground economy diyakini berpotensi menyebabkan hilangnya penerimaan negara melalui sektor perpajakan. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk menganalisis dan mengetahui besarnya nilai kegiatan underground economy regional di Indonesia pada periode 2011 s.d. 2015 dan besarnya potensi pajak yang hilang akibat adanya kegiatan underground economy tersebut. Dengan menggunakan data sekunder berbentuk runtut waktu (time series) triwulanan dari rilis publikasi Bank Indonesia (BI), Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dan Direktorat Jenderal Pajak Kementerian Keuangan dan metode analisis kuantitatif yang diestimasi dengan metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS) serta perhitungan estimasi underground economy menggunakan pendekatan moneter yang dikonstruksi oleh Vito Tanzi (1980) dan Faal (2003), penelitian ini secara empiris mengestimasi nilai underground economy. berkisar antara Rp 289 triliun sampai Rp 958 triliun dengan nilai rata-rata mencapai Rp 536 triliun per tahun atau setara dengan 22,1% terhadap PDB Nominal. Sementara itu, akibat adanya kegiatan underground economy, potensi pajak yang hilang berkisar antara Rp 23,32 triliun hingga Rp 1.467 triliun dengan rata-rata per tahun mencapai Rp 487,12 triliun atau setara dengan 1,9% dari PDB.
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