UJI KAUSALITAS GRANGER ANTARA EKSPOR DAN IMPOR INDONESIA: ANALISIS DENGAN MODEL VAR
Abstract
World leaders need to carefully consider the appropriate actions to address Trump's tariffs by understanding the causal relationship between exports and imports in their countries. Import restrictions can backfire if they ultimately impact exports. Domestic consumers and producers will suffer double losses. This study investigates the causal relationship between Indonesia’s exports and imports to provide evidence for trade policy. Quarterly data from 2015 to the second quarter of 2025 are analyzed using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework and Granger causality tests, covering global trade and three major partners: China, the United States, and Japan. The results of this study indicate that globally, Indonesia's exports and imports are interdependent, although this does not apply to all countries, such as Japan. This difference occurs due to the differences in the characteristics of the two countries' export and import commodities. The government is advised to be cautious in responding to trade war tariffs, as import restrictions through tariffs can reduce import volume and subsequently impact exports. The novelty of this study is the use of the most recent data, from 2015 to the second quarter of 2025, and testing not only global data but also data from three major trading partners.
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