THE IMPACT OF TOBACCO EXCISE TAX ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIAN CIGARETTE COMPANIES (2020-2024)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jpbc.v10i1.3882Keywords:
Cigarette Companies, Financial Performance, Tobacco Excise Tax, PMK 192/PMK.010/2021, Mixed Methods, Wilcoxon Signed Rank TestAbstract
This study analyses the impact of the tobacco excise increase under Minister of Finance Regulation No. 192/PMK.010/2021 on the financial performance of cigarette companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2020–2024. It employs a mixed methods approach with an explanatory sequential design. Saturated sampling covers the entire population of four listed cigarette firms: PT Gudang Garam Tbk, PT H.M. Sampoerna Tbk, PT Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk, and PT Indonesian Tobacco Tbk. Financial performance is measured through the Quick Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Return on Equity, Total Asset Turnover, and Net Profit Margin, and tested using the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test comparing the pre-policy (2020–2021) and post-policy (2022–2024) periods. The results show no significant median differences in any ratio. Interviews with finance management of a large and a smaller issuer and with the excise regulator, triangulated against annual reports and notes to the financial statements, indicate that this stability reflects deliberate adaptive strategies: gradual and segment-differentiated price pass-through, operational efficiency, disciplined cash management, product-mix repositioning toward lower-tariff segments, and a preference for internal financing. The study contributes in three ways: it is the first to test PMK 192/PMK.010/2021 directly on the financial ratios of the complete population of listed Indonesian cigarette firms; it integrates a non-parametric before–after test with primary qualitative evidence from both firms and the regulator; and it argues that statistical non-significance in fiscal-policy event studies should be read as evidence of firm-level absorptive capacity rather than of absent economic impact.
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