The Effect of Trade Openness, Customs Tariff, Financial Penalty, and Regional Trade Agreement on Trade Misinvoicing


  • Desi Riana Prasetya PKN STAN
  • Aditya Subur Purwana Department of Customs and Excise, Polytechnic of State Finance STAN



Trade misinvoicing is one of the illegal practices hiding behind legal trade with the purpose of tax evasion and capital flight. It is estimated that Indonesia had a potential loss of $6.5 billion in state revenue linked to trade misinvoicing in 2016. This study aims to obtain empirical evidence on the factors affecting trade misinvoicing, namely trade openness, customs tariff, financial penalty, and trade agreement in trade activities between Indonesia and its trading partner countries. The analysis was conducted on 83 trade partner countries listed on the UN Comtrade from 2010 to 2019 which were selected through a purposive sampling method; thus 830 observations were obtained. This study engages two-panel data regression models, namely a model with import misinvoicing and export misinvoicing as a proxy for trade misinvoicing. The results of this study indicate that customs tariffs, financial penalties, and trade agreements affect import misinvoicing. Furthermore, customs tariffs and financial penalties affect export misinvoicing. Meanwhile, trade openness does not affect trade misinvoicing, both from the import and export side.

Keywords: customs tariff, financial penalty, trade agreement, trade openness, trade misinvoicing

Trade misinvoicing merupakan salah satu praktik ilegal yang bersembunyi dibalik perdagangan yang sah dengan tujuan penghindaran pajak dan pelarian modal yang mengakibatkan Indonesia mengalami potensi kehilangan penerimaan sebesar $6,5 miliar pada tahun 2016. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan bukti empiris mengenai pengaruh faktor trade openness, customs tariff, financial penalty, dan trade agreement terhadap trade misinvoicing yang terdapat pada perdagangan antara Indonesia dan negara mitra dagangnya. Analisis dalam penelitian ini dilakukan terhadap 83 negara mitra dagang yang tercatat di UN Comtrade selama kurun waktu 2010 s.d. 2019 dengan metode purposive sampling, sehingga diperoleh 830 observasi. Penelitian ini menggunakan dua model regresi data panel, yaitu model dengan import misinvoicing dan export misinvoicing sebagai proksi dari trade misinvoicing. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa customs tariff, financial penalty, dan trade agreement berpengaruh terhadap import misinvoicing. Selanjutnya, customs tariff dan financial penalty berpengaruh terhadap export misinvoicing. Sedangkan trade openness tidak berpengaruh terhadap trade misinvoicing baik dari sisi impor maupun ekspor.

Kata kunci: customs tariff, financial penalty, trade agreement, trade openness, trade misinvoicing


Aizenman, J. (2008). On the hidden links Aizenman, J. (2008). On the hidden links between financial and trade opening. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(3), 372-386.

Aktaş, Z., Aldan, A., & Özmen, M. U. (2014). Import surveillance and over-invoicing imports: the case of Turkey. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 17(4), 360-373.

Arenas, G., Cantens, T., & Raballand, G. (2012). Mirror trade statistics: a tool to help identify customs fraud – a Cameroon case study. Washington DC: The World Bank.

Baker, R. W. (2005). Capitalism's Achilles heel: Dirty money and how to renew the free-market system. John Wiley & Sons.

Baker, R. (2014). Hiding in plain sight: Trade misinvoicing and the impact of revenue loss in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda: 2002-2011. Global Financial Integrity.

Bannister, M. G. J., Ghazanchyan, M. M., & Bikoi, T. P. (2017). Lao PDR: assessing the quality of trade statistics. International Monetary Fund.

Beja Jr, E. L. (2008). Estimating trade misinvoicing from China: 2000–2005. China & World Economy, 16(2), 82-92.

Bensassi, S., Jarreau, J., & Mitaritonna, C. (2017). Trade barriers and informality of trade: evidence from Benin's borders. DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).

Berger, H., & Nitsch, V. (2012). ‘Gotcha’! A profile of smuggling in international trade. Dalam C. C. Storti & P. De Grauwe (Eds.), Illicit trade and the global economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Bhagwati, Jagdish. (1964). On under-invoicing of imports. Bulletin of Oxford University Institute of Economics and Statistics, 26(4), 389-397.

Boyce, James K. and Leonce Ndikumana. (2001). Is Africa a net creditor? New estimates of capital flight from severely indebted Sub-Saharan African countries from 1970-1996. Journal of Development Studies, 38(2), 27-56.

Buehn, A., & Eichler, S. (2011). Trade misinvoicing: The dark side of world trade. The World Economy, 34(8), 1263-1287.

Carrère, C., & Grigoriou, C. (2014). Can mirror data help to capture informal international trade? Policy Issues in International and Commodities Research Study Series No. 65. New York: United Nations.

Carton, C. and Slim, S. (2018). Trade misinvoicing in OECD countries: what can we learn from bilateral trade intensity indices?

Cerra, V., Rishi, M., & Saxena, S. C. (2005). Robbing the riches: capital flight, institutions, and instability.

Choi, Y.S., (2019). Identifying trade mis-invoicing through customs data analysis. World Customs Journal, 59.

Das, K. K., Meriluoto, L., & Rice, A. (2020). Export tax and import-tariff avoidance: evidence from the trade data discrepancy in the China-New Zealand trade. New Zealand Economic Papers, 54(2), 161-189.

De Boyrie, M., Nelson, J., & Pak, S. (2007). Capital movement through trade misinvoicing: the case of Africa. Journal of Financial Crime, 14(4,), 474–489.

Dujava, D., & Siranova, M. (2017). Getting the Measures of Trade Misinvoicing Right: Bilateral Panel Data Approach.

Dyreng, S. D., Hanlon, M., & Maydew, E. L. (2008). Long‐run corporate tax avoidance. The Accounting Review, 83(1), 61-82.

Ekananda, M. (2018). Misinvoicing analysis in ASEAN-China free trade agreement (ACFTA). European Research Studies Journal, 21(1), 187-205

Farzanegan, M.R. (2008). Illegal trade in the Iranian economy: Evidence from a structural model. CESifo Working Paper (No. 2397). Munich: CESifo

Ferrantino, Michael J., Xuepeng Liu, and Zhi Wang. (2012). Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade data discrepancy. Journal of International Economics, 86, 141-157.

Fisman, R. and Wei S.J. (2004). Tax Rates and Tax Evasion. Journal of Political Economy, 112, 471–496.

Fisman, R., & Wei, S. J. (2009). The smuggling of art, and the art of smuggling: Uncovering the illicit trade in cultural property and antiques. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 1(3), 82-96.

Forstater, M. (2018). Illicit financial flows, trade misinvoicing, and multinational tax avoidance: the same or different? CGD policy paper, 123, 29.

Gara, M., Giammatteo, M., & Tosti, E. (2019). Magic mirror in my hand… How trade mirror statistics can help us detect illegal financial flows. The World Economy, 42(11), 3120-3147.

Gujarati, Damodar N. dan Dawn C. Porter. (2009). Basic econometrics (edisi ke-5). New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies.

Hanlon, M., & Heitzman, S. (2010). A review of tax research. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 50(2), 127-178.

Integrity, G. F. (2019). Indonesia: Potential revenue losses associated with trade misinvoicing. Washington, DC: Global Financial Integrity.

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.

Kar, D., & Freitas, S. (2013). Illicit financial flows from China and the role of trade misinvoicing. Center for International Policy.

Kellenberg, D., & Levinson, A. (2014). Beyond tax evasion and misreported trade: Global evidence on trade agreements, accounting standards, and Organized Crime.

Kellenberg, D., & Levinson, A. (2016). Misreporting trade: tariff evasion, corruption, and auditing standards. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper (No. 22593).

Oley, J. D. B., & Adi, Y. S. (2018). Vulnerabilities of Indonesia’s Extractive Industry to Illicit Financial Flows. Integritas: Jurnal Antikorupsi, 4(2), 75-98.

Oslington, P. (2013). Contextual History, Practitioner History, and Classic Status: Reading Jacob Viner’s The Customs Union Issue. Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 35(4), 491-515.

Patnaik, I., Gupta, A. S., & Shah, A. (2012). Determinants of trade misinvoicing. Open Economies Review, 23(5), 891-910.

Patunru A, & Yubwini. (2018). Trade and tax evasion in Indonesia. World Customs Journal, 12(2), 107-120.

Qureshi, T. A., & Mahmood, Z. (2016). The magnitude of trade misinvoicing and resulting revenue loss in Pakistan. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 21(2), 1.

Raskolnikov, A. (2006). Crime and punishment in taxation: Deceit, deterrence, and the self-adjusting penalty. Colum. L. Rev., 106, 569.

Salomon, M. (2018). Estimating IFFs/TM: Partner country method. Illicit Financial Flows via Trade Mis-invoicing, 31.

Sen Gupta, A., & Atri, P. (2018). Does Financial Sector Development Augment Cross-Border Capital Flow? International Economic Journal, 32(4), 499-523.

Stoyanov, A. (2012). Tariff evasion and rules of origin violations under the Canada‐US Free Trade Agreement. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 45(3), 879-902.

UNCTAD. (2016). Trade misinvoicing in Primary Commodities in Developing Countries: The Cases of Chile, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, South Africa, and Zambia

Yalta, A. Y., & Demir, I. (2010). The extent of trade mis-invoicing in Turkey: did post-1990 policies matter?. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 31(3), 41-66.

Republik Indonesia. (2006). Undang-Undang Nomor 17 Tahun 2006 tentang Perubahan atas Undang-Undang Nomor 10 Tahun 1995 tentang Kepabeanan. Kementerian Sekretariat Negara. Jakarta.

Koran Tempo. (13 September 2013). Kenaikan royalti batubara berlaku 2014. (Diakses 15 Januari 2021).

Pusat Kebijakan Pendapatan Negara. (2014). Kajian evaluasi tarif penerimaan negara bukan pajak (PNBP) mineral dan batubara. (Diakses 15 Januari 2021).

World Customs Organization. (2018). Illicit financial flows via trade mis-invoicing. (Diakses 20 Oktober 2020.

World Tariff Organization. (2017). Tariff Profile (Diakses 16 Desember 2020).



How to Cite

Prasetya, D. R., & Aditya Subur Purwana. (2021). The Effect of Trade Openness, Customs Tariff, Financial Penalty, and Regional Trade Agreement on Trade Misinvoicing. JURNAL PERSPEKTIF BEA DAN CUKAI, 5(1), 98–122.