Kesinambungan Fiskal Indonesia Pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jpkn.v4i1.1706Keywords:
fungsi reaksi fiskal, kesinanambungan fiskal, utang pemerintah, keseimbangan primerAbstract
Indonesia's fiscal sustainability faces major challenges in efforts to reduce the negative impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the Indonesian economy. Using the fiscal reaction function, this study attempts to measure Indonesia's fiscal sustainability in the face of the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Empirically, based on data from 1980-2021 and using OLS (Newey-West HAC) indicate that Indonesia's fiscal sustainability is maintained. The Government has strong and positive reaction to maintained fiscal sustainability which is reflected in the primary balance during the period of study. Countercyclical policies through expansionary fiscal policies during the Covid-19 crisis are indicated to have a negative effect on Indonesia's fiscal. For that, a strong and consistent primary balance surplus response is needed in the next few years to create fiscal space. This is important for Indonesia's fiscal policy to deal with shocks that may occur due to the ongoing global economic uncertainty.
Kesinambungan fiskal Indonesia menghadapi tantangan besar dalam upaya mengurangi dampak negatif krisis Covid-19 terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Studi ini dilakukan untuk mengukur kesinambungan fiskal Indonesia pada masa krisis Covid-19 menggunakan model fiscal reaction function. Berdasarkan data periode tahun 1980 sampai 2021, hasil estimasi yang dilakukan secara empiris dengan menggunakan OLS (Newey-West HAC) mengindikasikan bahwa fiskal Indonesia tetap terjaga kesinambungannya. Kondisi tersebut dibuktikan dengan reaksi fiskal yang positif dan kuat yang dilakukan oleh Pemerintah selama periode penelitian. Kebijakan countercyclical melalui kebijakan fiskal yang ekspansif pada masa krisis Covid-19 diindikasikan memberikan efek negatif pada fiskal Indonesia. Untuk itu, diperlukan respon surplus primary balance yang kuat dan konsisten dalam beberapa tahun ke depan untuk menciptakan ruang fiskal. Hal tersebut penting dilakukan dalam menghadapi shock yang mungkin terjadi akibat ketidakpastian ekonomi global yang masih berjalan.
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Copyright (c) 2022 Imam Rusdiyantoro, Robert A Simanjuntak
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
