Dampak Krisis Global Pada Industri Hasil Tembakau Di Indonesia: Sebuah Analisis Runtun Waktu
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jpkn.v4i1S.1918Keywords:
ARIMAX, Tobacco Product, Excise TaxAbstract
Despite facing various crises since 1998 until now, the level of production of tobacco products in Indonesia has not been significantly affected. By approaching a time series analysis with the ARIMAX model and using data on tobacco production from 1992 to 2021, this research illustrates that the tobacco industry in Indonesia has a fairly good level of resistance to the crisis conditions that have occurred. Under these circumstances, there is still opportunity for the government to optimize state revenues while at the same time carrying out the function of controlling the consumption of tobacco products.
Meskipun menghadapi berbagai krisis sejak tahun 1998 sampai dengan saat ini, tingkat produksi hasil tembakau di Indonesia tidak terkena dampak secara signifikan. Dengan pendekatan analisis runtun waktu dengan model ARIMAX dan menggunakan data produksi tembakau dari tahun 1992 hingga 2021, penelitian ini memberikan gambaran bahwa industri hasil tembakau di Indonesia memiliki tingkat ketahanan yang cukup baik terhadap kondisi krisis yang terjadi. Dalam kondisi tersebut, masih terdapat peluang bagi pemerintah untuk mengoptimalkan penerimaan negara sekaligus menjalankan fungsi pengendalian konsumsi hasil tembakau.
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Copyright (c) 2022 Rizky Mukhlas, Akbar Harfianto, Rizka wahyukomala
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
