DAMPAK IMPLEMENTASI KEBIJAKAN PEMBATASAN IMPOR SEPEDA PADA POLA PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jpbc.v7i1.2100Keywords:
ARIMA, Impor, Pembatasan Impor, Pembatasan Nontarif, Peramalan PerdaganganAbstract
Dalam menghadapi persaingan liberalisasi perdagangan, Indonesia menerapkan kebijakan tarif maupun nontarif. Hal ini menimbulkan efek ekonomi pada kegiatan perdagangan internasional. Penelitian ini membahas dampak perdagangan internasional setelah penerapan aturan pembatasan. Metode penelitian yang digunakan ialah metode penelitian kuantitatif dan penelitian ini menggunakan data time series pada kegiatan impor barang sepeda ke Indonesia pada periode 2016 – 2021. Metode pengolahan data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan t-test dan ARIMA. Hasil penelitian mengungkapkan pembatasan impor mempunyai dampak pada kegiatan perdagangan internasional. Nilai impor bertambah signifikan sebelum pembatasan dan berkurang signifikan setelah pembatasan. Hasil t-test menunjukkan tidak ada perbedaan antara sebelum dan sesudah pembatasan. Analisis peramalan model terbaik untuk nilai impor barang sepeda ialah model ARIMA (2,1,5). Hasil peramalan menunjukkan nilai impor aktual berada di bawah nilai impor hasil peramalan. Hal tersebut menunjukkan bahwa aturan pembatasan mampu menurunkan nilai impor sepeda.
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