DAMPAK SAFEGUARD ATAS IMPOR BENANG TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN: PENDEKATAN MODEL CGE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31092/jpbc.v5i2.1307Abstract
ABSTRACT:
The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of safeguard on yarn industry’s output, textile and apparel industry as the upper stream’s output, and economics welfare. Government of Indonesia implement safeguard on yarn from 2019 to 2022, to protect domestic industries from an increased quantities as to cause or threaten serious injury to domestic producers of like or directly competitive products. This study uses computable general equilibrium (CGE) model incorporating Indonesia Input - Output Table year 2016. The study exercised two scenario/simulations:(1) assessing safeguard impact; and (2) assessing combination of safeguard and tax incentive impact. The results showed that safeguard on yarn import decrease import value of yarn, but did not increase yarn’s and its upper stream industry’s output. Safeguard tend to decrease the utility or welfare of the economics. In the other hand, policy combination of safeguard and tax incentive decrease yarn import, but did not impact on upper stream industry’s import. The policy combination also increases yarn industry’s output, and increase the utility or welfare of the economics.
Keywords: compensating variation, fiscal incentive, textile and apparel industry, utility, welfare
ABSTRAK:Â
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis dampak safeguard terhadap produktivitas atau output industri benang dan industri tekstil dan produk tekstil sebagai industri hilir, serta dampak safeguard terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat dalam perekonomian. Pemerintah Indonesia menerapkan safeguard atas benang pada tahun 2019 s.d. 2022 sebagai bentuk perlindungan terhadap industri tekstil dalam negeri dari peningkatan impor benang yang menyebabkan, atau dicurigai akan mengakibatkan kerugian serius terhadap industri yang bersangkutan.
Penelitian menggunakan computable general equilibrium (CGE) model dengan data Tabel I-O Indonesia tahun 2016. Pengujian dilakukan dalam dua simulasi yaitu: (1) shock berupa penerapan safeguard; (2) kombinasi dari shock berupa penerapan safeguard dan fasilitas fiskal berupa pengurangan penghasilan industri untuk perhitungan pajak penghasilan wajib pajak Badan. Hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa safeguard menurunkan impor benang, tetapi tidak meningkatkan output domestik dan cenderung menurunkan utilitas/kesejahteraan masyarakat. Safeguard yang dikombinasikan dengan fasilitas pajak penghasilan mampu menurunkan impor, meningkatkan output (walaupun belum sampai tahap ekspor), dan meningkatkan utilitas/kesejahteraan masyarakat.
Kata kunci: compensating variation, industri tekstil dan produk tekstil, fiscal incentive, utilitas, kesejahteraan
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